MACROECONOMIC POLICY AFTER THE PANDEMIC
Pavel Trunin, Director of the Center for the Study of Problems of Central Banks of RANEPA
Kenneth Rogoff, Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy, Professor of Economics, Harvard University
In 2021, the global economy is growing at an impressive pace, and most countries have overcome the recession caused by the pandemic by early 2022. In many leading economies of the world, both fiscal and monetary policies remain rather soft, despite the phasing out of large-scale support measures for households and businesses. While classical economic theory predicts stagflation and a financial crisis in such a situation, the new monetary theory offers an explanation of why such a policy will allow to overcome years of stagnation. The sharp rise in inflation in the U.S. and then in European countries has become a reason to wonder how sustainable the current fiscal and monetary policies in developed economies are, and how likely the global financial crisis is. In addition, the goal of achieving and maintaining sustainable GDP growth in the post-pandemic period is not only to ensure the necessary level of fixed capital investment and increase economic productivity. The post-pandemic economy itself must change dramatically, and economic growth will only be assured if supply matches changing demand and consumer preferences.
• Prospects for recovery growth and risks of new pandemic waves.
• High inflation in the USA, European countries and Russia: causes and consequences.
• Monetary policy in 2020-2021: a view from classical and new monetary theory
• Structural shifts in the post-COVID economy: green technologies, logistics
challenges, bottlenecks in global production, new consumption patterns.
• Should the world expect a new financial crisis?